The devastating earthquake on May 12 in Sichuan province, China, has united the chinese people as one to endure any consequent situation. The three days after one week, from May 19 to May 21, were designated as the national mourning days. During this grave period, on the uncancelled television channels, the audience would have definitely consolidated the correct impression of some current undertakings from all of positive television programmes with one theme. By the way, there is nothing else on screen to take. Hence we knew that mudslides in the quake area buried more than 200 relief workers over the past three days while they were repairing roads, as the official Xinhua News Agency reported. Besides, we were delighted to hear the Chinese Red Cross has received the largest donation total in its history. Even a dumb person could get to realize the severity of the disaster as well as the achievement of the relief. My own child, in some kindergarden of my city, was also mobilized to make donation, which was naturely paid by the parents, to express the required affection. No wonder the relief becomes tremendously prosperous.

Since the relief is so widespread and moving, it will be definitely engraved in the memory of my compatriots and our history, just like many instances in the recent decade. The precedent performance covers the relief in the extraordinary flood raging in the Zhangjiang River Valley in 1998, in the epidemic situation of SARS propagating across half the nation in 2003, in the massive snowstorm messing up most chineses' Lunar New Year in the first two months of this year, etc. The previous tragedies, as essential background, always brought us great heroism and wise leadership and high-powered charity. Most of us delight in the good memory of those foreground activities during hard time, as we are usually supposed to do. This time the good memory will bloom once more for sure.

However, in spite of the sunshining future of this earthquake event, there is still a little dark cloud noteworthy. In the official news release conference on May 13, a reporter of Singapore United Morning (I don't know the exact english title of this press) mentioned such a matter. Seven clerks from Earthquake Bureau of Sichuan province lodged a complain to the press that their relatives perceived the signal of earthquake several days before. Both the vice minister of Civil Ministry and the spokesman of National Earthquake Bureau attended this conference. They deemed earthquake unpredictable, and invited the vice director of National Earthquake Observatory to interpret why earthquake forecast is world-class conundrum. Although fully prepared, they still avoid the direct answer to the possible omen of the earchquake this time.

It takes no more than five seconds for an earthquake to reach the earth's surface. This excuse appears convincing. However, there are considerable records of successful earthquake forecast in my country, eg. the one in Haicheng, Liaoning province, on Feb 4, 1975. Besides, I have to say our neighbouring country Japan, out of the solid hazzard of earthquake, has made more progress in this field of science. It makes an example of the possibility of the scientifical forecast. Although imprecise anyway, we can still imagine how many lives will be saved due to one hour of early warning.

Furthermore, earthquakes are phenomenon of nature. They, especially the severe ones, will distinctly influence the other parts, such as creatures, streams, and weather. That kind of omen can be perceived without high technology measures. Just before the magnitude-7.8 earthquake in Tangshan, Hebei province on July 28, 1976, there were tremendous reports about exceptional animal behaviors. Those omens, although inevitably intricate, are strong enough to remind responsible people of further investigation. As to the current one, it had even higher magnitude than the Tangshan earthquake, and made itself perceivable in megacities such as Beijing and Shanghai hundreds of miles away. So we can guess all the natural creatures aligned themselves with the local people to greet the great Olympic Torch Relay at that time, while the whole nation had been indulged in this patriotic but unpolitical movement for months. In an unanimously harmonious society like ours, nothing is impossible.

The offical website held by National Earthquake Observatory declares that the best strategy to many nature disasters is to figure out the statistical probability of the event. I can't agree more. Since the epicenter this time resides in well-known earchquake zones, it will not be marked as 0% for sure. But how high is it required to publish to the public? According to the opinion in the same website, it will be published "as long as the estimate of uncertainty doesn't mislead the public to affect their confidence". As we know, the forecast is imprecise, and the confidence is fragile. Therefore it is forgivable for Earthquake Bureau to avoid any haunting anxiety of the people, especially in the happy time of Olympic Torch Relay. But in this national mourning days, the relay is still suspended. Let us blame the troublesome "uncertainty".

Back to the foresaid news release conference. That reporter disclosed just now the alerged prohibition by the Bureau leader from leaking the message to ensure the safety and harmony before Olympic Games. The audience only got a lecture of earthquake knowledge. It is said that another similar conference was held on May 20. Chances are that the response would be delivered. If this subject was ignored again as it seemed to be, it was not bad either, for it did work so many times. However, such an ignorance has one critical shortcoming this time. Any person who is not very forgetful, if he once stayed on the epidemic province of SARS, should have heard of similar plot at that time. It is said that kind of epidemical illness was discerned in Guangdong province before Lunar New Year in 2003. But advices of precaution were dismissed to ensure the public's confidence on the festival consumption. Until some sick fellow went to Hong Kong and infected all the people lodging in the same floor of the hotel. Then we got to know it had already extended nationwide. Afterwards Beijing municipal government still denied any case of illness in its city, but that is another well-known story.

Sadly, uncertainty exists in any version of many social events in our harmonious society. The more credible the version appears, the more painstaking to have proof. In the event, you hardly get details, and even if provisioned, you hardly verify them. After the event, you can't help but leave the mist uncharted, for you are not supposed to worry about it any more. It is a real burden to oneself if he decides to keep in mind so much doubt and injustice. It will be no benefit to others either. Maybe we should realize how kind some one makes every effort to get rid of our bad memories for our sake. As to 98' flood, we are supposed to praise respectable soldiers' gallant deed, not supposed to mention water resource facilities were lack of attention in the past twenty years. As to 03' SARS, we are supposed to memorize the doctors and nurses from throughout the country, not supposed to inspect the delay due to festival concern of the time. As to 08' snowstorm, we are supposed to appreciate rural labors had a pleasant festival in megacities (at least on screen), not supposed to indicate excessive booking of railway tickets and short-sighted arrangement, which made millions of passengers stuck in railway stations or in their journey, let alone the tradition of rise in ticket price during every cherished festival.

Nowadays, in the name of mourning days, only a few television programmes with the identical theme available, nearly all domestic web forums suspended, much more overseas websites unaccessible. It is no surprise that the website of Singapore United Morning was not available in these days, though it was before. The morale is that donation is not enough to repay the unsolicited kindness, and that the memory of this earthquake event is supposed to be more refined and more delighted. It will definitely be so after the mourning days. I am confident of that.